Brexit: Ten Years On (2026)

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It has now been a full decade since Britain voted 53 to 47 to leave the European Union.

Opinion polls now indicate that over 75% now regard this as a bad decision with many of the architects of Brexit such as the former Prime Minister Lord Cameron expressing regret at the move. It is unlikely Cameron’s seven undistinguished years in Downing Street will be remembered for much else. Like Thatcher before him, his premiership both began and ended with severe economic recession.

The pound began dropping before the celebrations had even ended. Cameron and his Chancellor George Osborne were able to briefly use the cover of the mounting economic crisis to cling to power into the new year. He was assisted in this by the ructions in the Labour Party with Labour MPs using the excuse of the referendum defeat as an excuse to blame and overthrow their leader Jeremy Corbyn.

By 2017, unemployment was over two million (it has never been as low since) and both the facts that the country had a huge deficit and the Tories had a tiny majority suddenly became hugely relevant. As under John Major, the economy suffered both severe recession and Tory civil war. The Queen expressed concern. Cameron fell. For all his sub-Churchillian rhetoric, his gaffe-prone successor Boris Johnson proved no more able to cope with the slump than Cameron had. Nor could Chancellor Michael Gove.

Ten years on, unemployment is again back to 1980s levels, permanently over three million. Immigration has increased dramatically, the illusion that we could control our own borders on our own dramatically exposed as a pipe dream. UKIP, against expectation, remains strong although less strong than the resurgent pro-European  Liberal Democrats.  Any democratic gains achieved by Brexit seem to have passed most people by, unnoticed.

The newspapers, fierce cheerleaders for Brexit at the time now condemn it as an “historic mistake”.

The Prime Minister, encouraged by the support of former US president Hillary Clinton, is thought to be contemplating a new bid to apply for EU membership as soon as soon as the coronation is over.

It is not known if this will be successful.

 

 

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2016 Oscar predictions

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Here are my predictions in the ten top categories. Be warned: my track record is poor.

Best Picture: The Big Short

Best Director: Adam McKay (The Big Short)
Lead Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Lead Actress: Brie Larson (Room)
Supporting Actor:  Tom Hardy (The Revenant)
Supporting Actress: Alice Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Best Original Screenplay: Spotlight
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Martian
Best foreign film: Son of Saul
Best animated: Inside Out

85th Annual Academy Awards Oscars, Press Room, Los Angeles, America - 24 Feb 2013

Mandatory Credit: Photo by Stewart Cook/REX/Shutterstock (2165841gd) Jennifer Lawrence 85th Annual Academy Awards Oscars, Press Room, Los Angeles, America – 24 Feb 2013

This is the future: 2013-2030.

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I am certainly no Nostradamus (although let’s face it: neither was Nostradamus). Had I written this a few years ago, I would probably have predicted David Miliband would now be Prime Minister and Hillary Clinton in power in the White House. But just for fun, let’s see what the next few years up to 2020 might have in store…

Scotland will vote to remain within the UK (2014).

The next General Election will have almost as the same outcome as the last one (2015).
I am fully aware this prediction will please no one. But while Labour are currently projected to win a substantial majority, I would expect this to change simply because Ed Miliband remains relatively unpopular and is hated by the press. At the same time, Tory hopes of winning an outright majority seem like overly optimistic wishful thinking. And if no one wins a majority, the Lib Dems in their current form seem unlikely to go with anyone other than the Cons simply because the Lib Dem leadership is basically Tory. So, sorry folks. We may be in for more of the same until 2020. Although there will be a new and slightly amended Coalition agreement, for all the difference that makes. Maybe Nick Clegg will remember to ask for a proper government department this time.

Yvette Cooper will be elected leader of the Labour Party following Ed Miliband’s resignation (2015)

Hillary Clinton will win the US presidential elections (2016).
She will beat Republican Paul Ryan in a close contest. She will be the first woman US president.

The UK will stay in the European Union throughout this decade (2010-2020).
UKIP will do well in the 2014 European elections but will fail to win a single seat in the 2015 General Election. Cameron will somehow dodge having the promised in-out referendum. The issue will contribute to his downfall in 2018.

Boris Johnson will become Prime Minister (2018).
Yes! Horror of horrors! This could actually happen. Start packing your suitcase now!

King Charles III will attempt to disestablish the Church of England (before 2030).
I don’t want to make morbid predictions about the likely mortality of the Queen. But I would guess Charles would be on the throne before the end of the next decade and some move towards reform from him in this quarter.

Oscar predictions 2013

The 82nd Academy Awards - Press Room - Los Angeles

Here, for what it’s worth, are my Oscar predictions for 2013. 

The ceremony is on Sunday…

 

Best Motion Picture
Lincoln

Achievement in Directing
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln 

Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln  

Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty 

Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master 

Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

 

Best Animated Feature Film
ParaNorman


Original Screenplay
Flight, John Gatins 

 

Adapted Screenplay
Argo, Chris Terrio 


Best Foreign-Language Film
Kontiki (Norway)

Best Documentary Feature 
Searching for a Sugar Man